Disclaimer

What this is

Vigil is an information and analytics product. It publishes probabilities, prices, measured edges and explanations of them. It is for information and entertainment.

What this is not

• Not a sportsbook. Vigil never takes a bet, never holds your money, and never pays out. There is no wallet, no deposit and no balance.
• Not a guarantee. Nothing here is a promise that a bet will win. A positive edge is a statement about long-run expectation measured against a market price, not about tonight.
• Not financial or legal advice. We do not know your circumstances and we are not advising you on them.
• Not a ruling on legality. Whether you may bet at all depends on where you are. That is yours to establish, not ours.

About the numbers

A market is shown as proven only when a model has beaten the no-vig closing line on a holdout by more than chance explains, and is no worse calibrated than that line. Everything else is labelled not yet proven and produces analysis rather than picks. We would rather show you nothing than show you something we cannot stand behind.

Past results do not predict future results. Any record shown on this site is published with its sample size, because a win rate without one is a number pretending to be evidence.

Odds data

Odds are shown for your use inside Vigil and are licensed on that basis. They may be out of date by the time you read them, they may differ from what your sportsbook is offering, and they may not be redistributed, resold or exported.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.