The vig
A book prices both sides so the implied chances add up to more than 100%. That surplus is the vig, and it is why betting coin flips at -110 loses money even when you are right half the time.
Four numbers,
plainly explained.
Everything this product does rests on these. None of them is complicated; all of them are routinely misused by people selling picks.
The fair price
Take the vig out across every book quoting a market and what is left is the fair probability — the market’s honest opinion with the house’s cut removed.
The edge
The gap between the model’s probability and the break-even rate at the price actually on offer. Not the gap against the fair price: that says something about the model rather than about this bet, and the two get confused often enough that we keep them as separate numbers.
Closing line value
Whether the price you got beat the price the market finished at. Over enough bets it is the most honest evidence a method works, because it does not depend on whether any one bet happened to win.
Proven, and not yet proven
A market only produces picks once a model has beaten the no-vig closing line on a holdout by more than chance explains, and is no worse calibrated than that line. Both conditions, because a sharper model with miscalibrated probabilities is more dangerous than a blunt one — stake sizing reads the probability literally.
Everything else is labelled not yet proven and produces analysis instead of picks. Most markets, most of the time, are not yet proven.